Fri, Dec 5, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Anaheim Ducks 5, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 27 | 18 | 26 | 521 |
| MIN | 04 | 311 | 110 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:31ANARyan KeslerAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 11:44ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Devante Smith-Pelly · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 2:28ANARyan KeslerAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Tim Jackman · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 4:59MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Marco Scandella · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 5:10MINZach ParisePPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 17:49MINJonas BrodinAssists: Jason Pominville, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 2:07MINJustin FontaineAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Nate Prosser · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 3:37ANATim JackmanAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 8:28ANAMatt BeleskeyGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:26MINJason Zucker: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 11:28ANANate Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:28MINKeith Ballard: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:10ANAJosh Manson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:57ANARyan Getzlaf: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 4:25ANARyan Kesler: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:31MINZach Parise: Holding2 min
- P2 18:47ANAJosh Manson: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:49MINJustin Fontaine: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:19MINZach Parise: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Smith-Pelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Silfverberg – Smith-Pelly2:42
xG 0.33–0.08 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Jackman – Thompson – Maroon4:17
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Kesler – Beleskey – Palmieri5:33
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Bourque2:06
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen14:29
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Fowler – Manson15:03
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Fistric – Lindholm14:51
xG 0.20–0.46 (30%)attempts 12–15goals 2–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Coyle12:21
xG 0.54–0.27 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Carter – Haula – Fontaine7:22
xG 0.23–0.11 (69%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund12:05
xG 0.17–0.38 (31%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Vanek – Brodziak – Niederreiter9:40
xG 0.10–0.40 (20%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Folin16:41
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon16:06
xG 0.60–0.48 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
- Spurgeon – Brodin2:34
xG 0.09–0.02 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).