Sat, Dec 6, 2014·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 29 | 04 | 17 | 320 |
| TBL | 014 | 012 | 18 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37CBJBoone JennerAssists: Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 12:48CBJDavid SavardPPGWGAssists: Jack Johnson, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 4:51CBJJack SkilleAssists: Michael Chaput, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 18:47TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:52CBJCam Atkinson: Holding2 min
- P1 12:25TBLAnton Stralman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:01TBLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:30TBLOndrej Palat: Interference2 min
- P2 16:26CBJDalton Prout: Interference2 min
- P2 16:26TBLRyan Callahan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:50TBLRyan Callahan: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:50CBJDalton Prout: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:42CBJJack Skille: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:24TBLMatt Carle: Interference2 min
- P3 17:36CBJMatt Calvert: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:36TBLAlex Killorn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Foligno – Gibbons9:07
xG 0.52–0.07 (89%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Boll – Tropp – Chaput4:03
xG 0.04–0.09 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Skille – Johansen – Rychel8:06
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Calvert – Atkinson – Jenner9:30
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Savard12:39
xG 0.36–0.36 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Leopold – Prout13:04
xG 0.43–0.44 (49%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Erixon11:23
xG 0.32–0.40 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Boyle – Drouin7:32
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos12:59
xG 0.59–0.44 (57%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Connolly – Paquette9:33
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov7:15
xG 0.17–0.40 (29%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman13:28
xG 0.75–0.22 (78%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
- Garrison – Sustr12:54
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Carle – Gudas12:33
xG 0.33–0.68 (33%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).