Sat, Dec 6, 2014·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Boston Bruins 5, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 216 | 312 | 05 | 533 |
| ARI | 111 | 07 | 18 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Reilly Smith, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 5:58BOSKevan MillerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 13:11ARIJoe VitaleAssists: Shane Doan, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 8:34BOSSimon GagneGWGAssists: Daniel Paille · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–1
- P2 14:47BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Reilly Smith, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
- P2 19:30BOSLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.43 xG5–1
- P3 5:41ARIMikkel BoedkerPPAssists: Antoine Vermette, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:29BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:33BOSCarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:43ARIZbynek Michalek: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:17ARIMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:45BOSMilan Lucic: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 16:04BOSDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vitale won the faceoff against Campbell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith11:09
xG 0.50–0.12 (81%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Gagne – Campbell – Paille7:11
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Kelly – Eriksson – Fraser9:22
xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Lucic – Griffith10:48
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrotman – Krug12:31
xG 0.66–0.32 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Seidenberg – Hamilton17:49
xG 0.60–0.46 (57%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Miller – Morrow11:12
xG 0.23–0.13 (63%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Korpikoski – Gagner4:30
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker3:19
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Doan – Gagner – Rieder2:48
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Gagner – Rieder2:03
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson15:33
xG 0.08–0.13 (36%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Campbell – Murphy9:50
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Yandle – Murphy2:41
xG 0.01–0.18 (6%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).