Sun, Dec 7, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 1, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 02 | 19 | 010 | 121 |
| EDM | 011 | 17 | 16 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:45EDMNail YakupovPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 9:51SJSTye McGinnAssists: Patrick Marleau, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 10:26EDMDavid PerronGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Mark Fayne · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:42SJSMirco Mueller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:18EDMKeith Aulie: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:18SJSJames Sheppard: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 6:18SJSJames Sheppard: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:18EDMKeith Aulie: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:36SJSBrenden Dillon: Holding2 min
- P3 0:21EDMBoyd Gordon: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:30EDMSteven Pinizzotto: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Wingels12:01
xG 1.10–0.71 (61%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl12:53
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Desjardins – Scott2:21
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Desjardins – Goodrow2:59
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Mueller9:51
xG 0.92–0.11 (90%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun16:42
xG 0.31–0.48 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon19:02
xG 0.29–0.97 (23%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGordon – Purcell – Perron11:08
xG 0.43–0.08 (85%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Eberle – Yakupov – Draisaitl11:08
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Pinizzotto – Gazdic – Arcobello4:48
xG 0.02–0.03 (42%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins13:09
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Klefbom17:35
xG 0.94–0.22 (81%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Aulie – Schultz7:29
xG 0.38–0.03 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Ference – Schultz2:42
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).