Mon, Dec 8, 2014·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New York Rangers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 012 | 213 | 02 | 335 |
| NYR | 09 | 214 | 14 | 12 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:35PITNick SpalingAssists: Sidney Crosby, Steve Downie · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 3:50NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Martin St. Louis, Dominic Moore · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 8:40NYRRick NashAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
- P3 12:58NYRKevin HayesUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 15:17PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Brandon Sutter, Blake Comeau · Snap, 0.33 xG2–3
- P3 15:41PITSteve DownieAssists: Nick Spaling, Rob Scuderi · Snap, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 3:45NYRKevin KleinGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Dominic Moore · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:19PITZach Sill: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 10:51NYRKevin Hayes: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 15:09PITNick Spaling: Interference2 min
- P2 18:05PITSidney Crosby: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Comeau – Sutter15:02
xG 1.23–0.75 (62%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Crosby – Downie – Spaling11:47
xG 0.64–0.21 (76%)attempts 13–3goals 2–0
- Adams – Ebbett – Sill3:05
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Malkin – Crosby – Downie2:01
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Ehrhoff6:41
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Martin2:39
xG 0.24–0.08 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Despres – Dumoulin3:52
xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Stempniak – Hagelin – Hayes8:14
xG 0.05–0.15 (24%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Moore – Glass – Fast5:50
xG 0.13–0.36 (26%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Stepan – Miller11:27
xG 0.34–0.67 (34%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello13:52
xG 0.63–1.08 (37%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – McDonagh3:35
xG 0.61–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Boyle – Staal13:18
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Klein – Moore6:41
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).