Mon, Dec 8, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Florida Panthers 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 118 | 18 | 234 |
| STL | 211 | 07 | 210 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:17STLMaxim LapierreAssists: Chris Porter, Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 17:34STLIan ColeAssists: Jori Lehtera, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 15:21FLANick BjugstadAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 14:54FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 18:06STLChris PorterGWGAssists: Barret Jackman · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 19:28STLPaul StastnyENAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.56 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:10FLAAaron Ekblad: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:16FLAJussi Jokinen: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 12:52STLRyan Reaves: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:54FLADerek MacKenzie: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:31FLADave Bolland: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:39STLPatrik Berglund: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:49STLJaden Schwartz: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Hayes – Trocheck10:42
xG 0.61–0.08 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Bolland11:11
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Bjugstad – Huberdeau10:16
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Kopecky – Pirri7:48
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad15:46
xG 0.90–0.25 (78%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Kulikov14:35
xG 0.54–0.13 (80%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Olsen – Gudbranson10:28
xG 0.31–0.49 (39%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Oshie – Berglund3:22
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Oshie – Berglund – Schwartz2:34
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Stastny – Schwartz2:22
xG 0.13–0.17 (42%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:49
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Cole11:16
xG 0.43–0.33 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Cole – Shattenkirk2:20
xG 0.02–0.06 (25%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Lindbohm10:48
xG 0.15–0.30 (34%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).