Tue, Dec 9, 2014·Prudential Center, Newark
Chicago Blackhawks 3, New Jersey Devils 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 09 | 117 | 18 | 05 | 2 | 339 |
| NJD | 110 | 07 | 16 | 01 | 0 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:11NJDJordin TootooAssists: Steve Bernier · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 10:55CHIBryan BickellAssists: Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 2:31NJDStephen GiontaAssists: Steve Bernier, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–2
- P3 16:47CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Marian Hossa, Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.44 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NJD Martin Havlat stopped
- 2. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
- 3. NJD Jaromir Jagr stopped
- 4. CHI Patrick Kane scored
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:07CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:23NJDJacob Josefson: High sticking double minor4 min
- OT 2:54NJDJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad14:50
xG 0.94–0.19 (83%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Carcillo – Smith – Kruger5:52
xG 0.07–0.08 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sharp – Bickell – Shaw11:18
xG 0.67–0.73 (48%)attempts 13–9goals 1–2
- Richards – Versteeg – Kane12:07
xG 0.12–0.26 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook19:12
xG 0.90–0.51 (64%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Oduya3:18
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson15:26
xG 0.34–0.24 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Bernier – Gionta – Josefson4:06
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Josefson – Sislo7:16
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ryder – Ruutu – Henrique3:46
xG 0.02–0.05 (28%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Bernier – Gionta5:40
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Greene – Severson17:08
xG 0.76–0.80 (49%)attempts 11–18goals 2–0
- Harrold – Helgeson9:13
xG 0.20–0.38 (34%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Zidlicky – Merrill20:01
xG 0.44–1.07 (29%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).