Wed, Dec 10, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Detroit Red Wings 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 03 | 16 | 03 | 2 | 219 |
| DET | 012 | 110 | 018 | 02 | 1 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:52DETGustav NyquistAssists: Tomas Jurco, Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.26 xG0–1
- P3 5:09TORPhil KesselAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
- 2. TOR Tyler Bozak scored
- 3. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 4. TOR Joffrey Lupul stopped
- 5. DET Tomas Tatar stopped
- 6. TOR Mike Santorelli scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:49TORDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P1 16:30DETTomas Tatar: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:19DETRiley Sheahan: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:09DETDanny DeKeyser: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 11:58TORJoffrey Lupul: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:02TORNazem Kadri: Clipping2 min
- P3 12:32TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- OT 4:03DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Clarkson – Booth – Holland5:14
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Winnik – Panik – Kozun4:38
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Booth – Santorelli – Kadri6:58
xG 0.24–0.42 (36%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Lupul – Clarkson – Holland6:32
xG 0.04–0.34 (10%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Franson – Rielly2:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner2:16
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Robidas – Rielly9:41
xG 0.25–0.44 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Jurco9:28
xG 0.81–0.21 (79%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar10:55
xG 0.69–0.30 (69%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening8:25
xG 0.39–0.04 (91%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Weiss – Franzen – Sheahan9:38
xG 0.31–0.04 (89%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser15:59
xG 1.28–0.26 (83%)attempts 22–3goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson14:40
xG 0.84–0.06 (93%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Kindl – Smith10:16
xG 0.29–0.08 (79%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).