Sat, Dec 13, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 3, Boston Bruins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 115 | 15 | 02 | 2 | 331 |
| BOS | 110 | 17 | 013 | 01 | 1 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:45BOSCraig CunninghamSHAssists: Zdeno Chara · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 2:24OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 10:33BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: Kevan Miller, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 4:17OTTDavid LegwandPPAssists: Mark Stone, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BOS Reilly Smith stopped
- 2. OTT Mika Zibanejad scored
- 3. BOS Brad Marchand scored
- 4. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 5. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
- 6. OTT Bobby Ryan scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:20BOSZdeno Chara: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:12BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:50BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:50OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:16BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:47OTTDavid Legwand: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Kelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone13:41
xG 0.35–0.31 (54%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Ryan – Greening – Zibanejad3:02
xG 0.04–0.06 (44%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Legwand – Greening – Smith3:00
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad6:59
xG 0.18–0.30 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Gryba – Borowiecki2:27
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gryba – Wiercioch11:01
xG 0.21–0.23 (49%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Cowen3:17
xG 0.12–0.14 (45%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith11:52
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Kelly – Lucic – Cunningham10:38
xG 0.29–0.17 (62%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Campbell – Paille – Griffith6:35
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Soderberg – Fraser10:26
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug11:10
xG 0.33–0.04 (88%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Miller5:19
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Trotman12:25
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).