Sat, Dec 13, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 05 | 011 | 128 |
| TOR | 112 | 120 | 29 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:27DETNiklas KronwallPPAssists: Johan Franzen, Gustav Nyquist · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:27TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 17:50TORRichard PanikGWGAssists: Korbinian Holzer · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 1:42TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Daniel Winnik · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 16:46TORNazem KadriENAssists: Daniel Winnik, Mike Santorelli · Snap, 0.66 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:10DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:46TORJames van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:06DETJoakim Andersson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:42TORRichard Panik: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:10DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:29DETBrendan Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 10:30TORPhil Kessel: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:30DETJohan Franzen: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:09DETBrendan Smith: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:09DETBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:09TORRichard Panik: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tatar won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Helm – Tatar7:40
xG 1.05–0.15 (87%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening7:26
xG 0.80–0.22 (79%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Franzen2:02
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Cleary – Franzen – Sheahan5:14
xG 0.07–0.31 (17%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson15:28
xG 1.60–0.46 (78%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Ouellet2:16
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lashoff – Ouellet8:26
xG 0.33–0.73 (31%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBooth – Smith – Panik6:49
xG 0.57–0.10 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Winnik – Kadri11:02
xG 0.86–0.50 (63%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Lupul – Clarkson – Holland8:31
xG 0.26–1.02 (20%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak10:37
xG 0.23–1.00 (18%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly2:33
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Franson14:06
xG 0.60–0.41 (59%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Robidas – Rielly9:47
xG 0.53–0.49 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).