Sat, Dec 13, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Nashville Predators 0, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 04 | 018 | 029 |
| SJS | 118 | 011 | 15 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:01SJSTomas HertlGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P3 18:26SJSJoe ThorntonENAssists: Logan Couture, Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.63 xG0–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:04SJSChris Tierney: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:13SJSBarclay Goodrow: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:03NSHJames Neal: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:03SJSTommy Wingels: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:03NSHJames Neal: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:54NSHSeth Jones: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:54NSHMike Fisher: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:54SJSJames Sheppard: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:25SJSJustin Braun: Holding2 min
- P3 12:28SJSJames Sheppard: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:28NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:39SJSBarclay Goodrow: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:39SJSBarclay Goodrow: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:39NSHRyan Ellis: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:39NSHJames Neal: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheppard won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Neal – Forsberg3:28
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg7:17
xG 0.23–0.10 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Wilson – Smith4:07
xG 0.08–0.17 (33%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fisher – Smith5:59
xG 0.07–0.45 (14%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Josi – Jones3:29
xG 0.05–0.04 (52%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Ellis – Jones2:29
xG 0.01–0.11 (5%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm12:57
xG 0.77–1.12 (41%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Hertl9:57
xG 1.00–0.12 (89%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Sheppard – Goodrow – Karlsson11:59
xG 1.07–0.23 (82%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Desjardins – McGinn – Tierney4:46
xG 0.15–0.07 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels10:23
xG 0.11–1.18 (9%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Dillon16:54
xG 1.68–0.13 (93%)attempts 29–13goals 1–0
- Hannan – Tennyson10:51
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun14:31
xG 0.15–1.16 (11%)attempts 9–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).