Tue, Dec 16, 2014·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 1, Arizona Coyotes 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 111 | 05 | 014 | 02 | 132 |
| ARI | 07 | 127 | 06 | 14 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:56EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Brad Hunt, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 10:24ARIBrandon McMillanAssists: Joe Vitale, Chris Summers · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- OT 4:59ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonGWGAssists: Sam Gagner, Martin Erat · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:22EDMJeff Petry: Interference2 min
- P1 16:02ARIZbynek Michalek: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:36EDMJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:00EDMTaylor Hall: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:11EDMSteven Pinizzotto: Holding2 min
- P3 10:07ARIAntoine Vermette: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Pitlick – Arcobello10:02
xG 0.48–0.22 (68%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Purcell – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins10:28
xG 0.39–0.37 (52%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Pinizzotto – Gazdic6:10
xG 0.13–0.15 (45%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Eberle – Yakupov – Draisaitl9:12
xG 0.21–0.35 (38%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Davidson11:01
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Ference – Petry14:39
xG 0.45–0.80 (36%)attempts 15–23goals 0–1
- Schultz – Hunt15:52
xG 0.48–1.20 (29%)attempts 20–21goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHanzal – Gagner – Rieder12:04
xG 0.84–0.25 (77%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Erat – Moss – Chipchura9:05
xG 0.57–0.09 (87%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Vitale – McMillan4:20
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker12:30
xG 0.39–0.76 (34%)attempts 17–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson18:28
xG 1.25–0.57 (69%)attempts 33–19goals 0–0
- Michalek – Summers2:55
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Summers – Schlemko5:23
xG 0.19–0.03 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).