Wed, Dec 17, 2014·Prudential Center, Newark
Ottawa Senators 2, New Jersey Devils 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 14 | 04 | 18 | 216 |
| NJD | 010 | 016 | 08 | 034 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:47OTTKyle TurrisPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P3 19:59OTTKyle TurrisENAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Mark Borowiecki · Snap, 0.66 xG2–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:24NJDJon Merrill: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 13:30OTTBobby Ryan: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:37OTTBobby Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:19OTTEric Gryba: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:03OTTAlex Chiasson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:39OTTKyle Turris: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:57NJDJaromir Jagr: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Condra – Chiasson – Lazar3:02
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Legwand – Condra – Chiasson2:33
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ryan – Zibanejad2:28
xG 0.02–0.03 (39%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad6:51
xG 0.05–0.13 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Cowen – Ceci11:24
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Borowiecki3:42
xG 0.02–0.09 (18%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson15:02
xG 0.05–0.51 (10%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Gomez – Henrique12:01
xG 0.80–0.29 (73%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Elias – Havlat – Zajac11:59
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Ryder – Ruutu – Gionta8:28
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Bernier – Josefson5:35
xG 0.02–0.11 (15%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Gelinas11:02
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Greene – Merrill10:02
xG 0.35–0.08 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Greene – Harrold2:34
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).