Sun, Dec 21, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Dallas Stars 6, Edmonton Oilers 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 211 | 114 | 216 | 04 | 3 | 645 |
| EDM | 112 | 49 | 05 | 03 | 2 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:58EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 6:36DALShawn HorcoffAssists: Jyrki Jokipakka, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–1
- P1 10:20DALErik ColeAssists: Ales Hemsky, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 0:11EDMTeddy PurcellAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 2:44EDMMark ArcobelloAssists: Jeff Petry, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–3
- P2 9:19EDMMark ArcobelloAssists: Steven Pinizzotto, Matt Hendricks · Snap, 0.29 xG2–4
- P2 13:17EDMTaylor HallAssists: Teddy Purcell · Snap, 0.19 xG2–5
- P2 19:39DALJamie BennPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 0:52DALTyler SeguinAssists: John Klingberg, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–5
- P3 9:13DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.27 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Spezza stopped
- 2. EDM Taylor Hall stopped
- 3. DAL Tyler Seguin scored
- 4. EDM David Perron stopped
- 5. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 6. EDM Jordan Eberle scored
- 7. DAL Trevor Daley stopped
- 8. EDM Matt Hendricks stopped
- 9. DAL Ales Hemsky stopped
- 10. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
- 11. DAL Vernon Fiddler scored
- 12. EDM Teddy Purcell scored
- 13. DAL Jordie Benn stopped
- 14. EDM Mark Arcobello stopped
- 15. DAL Shawn Horcoff scored
- 16. EDM Anton Lander stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:48DALJamie Benn: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 8:36EDMBoyd Gordon: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:36DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:31DALJason Demers: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:31EDMNail Yakupov: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:34EDMBoyd Gordon: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:40EDMTyler Pitlick: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:36EDMAndrew Ference: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Fiddler – Sceviour9:11
xG 0.74–0.13 (85%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Benn – Seguin5:29
xG 0.51–0.06 (89%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Cole – Hemsky – Morin5:04
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin7:57
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Jokipakka13:54
xG 1.16–0.50 (70%)attempts 16–16goals 2–0
- Demers – Benn14:43
xG 0.73–0.45 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Klingberg15:56
xG 0.98–0.75 (57%)attempts 26–17goals 2–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Pinizzotto – Arcobello2:43
xG 0.51–0.08 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Purcell – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins14:33
xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Gordon – Perron – Eberle10:18
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Lander – Pitlick – Yakupov9:46
xG 0.28–1.03 (21%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Ference – Petry16:44
xG 0.75–0.81 (48%)attempts 16–17goals 1–2
- Ference – Fayne2:22
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Schultz – Hunt14:16
xG 0.85–1.16 (42%)attempts 17–18goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).