Mon, Dec 22, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Florida Panthers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 07 | 28 | 04 | 0 | 327 |
| FLA | 09 | 113 | 212 | 03 | 1 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:39PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Simon Despres, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 19:23FLAJussi JokinenAssists: Dave Bolland, Dmitry Kulikov · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 0:22FLAJimmy HayesAssists: Sean Bergenheim · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 4:55FLAJimmy HayesAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 15:08PITNick SpalingPPAssists: Derrick Pouliot, Simon Despres · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 16:50PITEvgeni MalkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 2. FLA Brandon Pirri stopped
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 4. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 5. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 6. FLA Nick Bjugstad stopped
- 7. PIT Chris Kunitz stopped
- 8. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 9. PIT Patric Hornqvist stopped
- 10. FLA Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 11. PIT Derrick Pouliot stopped
- 12. FLA Dave Bolland stopped
- 13. PIT Simon Despres stopped
- 14. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:53FLADylan Olsen: Interference2 min
- P2 0:27PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:13PITBlake Comeau: Interference2 min
- P2 9:27FLAAaron Ekblad: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:20PITSimon Despres: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:24FLABrandon Pirri: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:13FLADerek MacKenzie: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Comeau – Spaling9:50
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist11:02
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Ebbett – Rust – Farnham2:48
xG 0.02–0.12 (16%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Goc – Ebbett – Klinkhammer3:52
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Harrington9:39
xG 1.33–0.41 (76%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Chorney – Letang3:41
xG 0.24–0.04 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Despres – Dumoulin10:31
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBergenheim – Hayes – Barkov11:55
xG 0.90–0.19 (82%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Bolland – Pirri7:22
xG 0.24–0.18 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – Trocheck – Huberdeau10:34
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Kopecky – Pirri2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad15:45
xG 1.07–0.49 (69%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson13:48
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Kulikov12:13
xG 0.21–0.22 (48%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).