Tue, Dec 23, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 3, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 26 | 14 | 06 | 316 |
| DET | 115 | 111 | 413 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36BUFNicolas DeslauriersAssists: Drew Stafford, Brian Flynn · Deflected, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 10:50DETStephen WeissPPAssists: Jakub Kindl, Gustav Nyquist · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 13:35BUFChris StewartAssists: Cody Hodgson, Mikhail Grigorenko · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 9:00BUFAndre BenoitSHAssists: Brian Flynn · Snap, 0.21 xG3–1
- P2 17:54DETDanny DeKeyserAssists: Tomas Jurco, Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 4:19DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Justin Abdelkader · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 11:40DETTomas TatarPPGWGAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Gustav Nyquist · Snap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 14:06DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Jakub Kindl · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–5
- P3 17:48DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Brendan Smith, Gustav Nyquist · Snap, 0.10 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:23BUFZemgus Girgensons: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:46DETPavel Datsyuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:55BUFNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
- P2 14:48BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:53BUFBrian Flynn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 12:46BUFJohan Larsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:14BUFAndrej Meszaros: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Stafford – Deslauriers – Flynn8:06
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- Stewart – Hodgson – Grigorenko13:47
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
- Kaleta – Larsson – Schaller5:36
xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ennis – Armia – Girgensons13:01
xG 0.31–0.85 (27%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Meszaros9:06
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 5–6goals 2–0
- Pysyk – Zadorov16:55
xG 0.35–0.47 (43%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Zadorov2:00
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader13:21
xG 1.10–0.10 (92%)attempts 21–2goals 1–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco7:38
xG 0.09–0.05 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Weiss – Tatar – Sheahan2:03
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Jurco – Glendening3:35
xG 0.04–0.02 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – DeKeyser5:20
xG 0.77–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser12:35
xG 0.38–0.02 (94%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Smith – DeKeyser2:08
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).