Tue, Dec 23, 2014·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 112 | 210 | 329 |
| TBL | 28 | 212 | 07 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:54TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 19:56TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 0:52TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Matt Carle, Valtteri Filppula · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 2:37TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 10:15PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Rob Klinkhammer · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 9:55PITChris KunitzAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 18:29PITKris LetangAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:57PITBrian Dumoulin: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:15TBLBrett Connolly: Interference2 min
- P1 16:06PITPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:53PITBobby Farnham: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:53TBLBrenden Morrow: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00TBLTyler Johnson: Interference2 min
- P3 0:31PITPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:46PITChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Klinkhammer13:47
xG 0.76–0.31 (71%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Goc – Ebbett – Spaling2:39
xG 0.02–0.04 (35%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Goc – Spaling – Farnham4:31
xG 0.02–0.14 (11%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Crosby – Rust12:23
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Pouliot12:56
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Letang – Harrington15:01
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Despres – Dumoulin10:50
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Morrow – Boyle – Paquette6:55
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Boyle – Stamkos – Paquette2:04
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov10:30
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 3–0
- Stamkos – Connolly – Drouin8:55
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hedman – Sustr12:20
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 14–10goals 3–1
- Carle – Stralman15:56
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Barberio – Gudas13:00
xG 0.24–0.37 (39%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).