Tue, Dec 23, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Arizona Coyotes 5, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 28 | 17 | 27 | 522 |
| EDM | 113 | 05 | 09 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:44ARISam GagnerAssists: Martin Erat, Martin Hanzal · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 5:00ARIMartin EratGWGAssists: Connor Murphy, Sam Gagner · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 6:18EDMJustin SchultzAssists: Brad Hunt, Mark Arcobello · Snap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 7:54ARIKeith YandleAssists: Shane Doan, Antoine Vermette · Snap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 4:07ARIBrandon GormleyAssists: Martin Hanzal, Sam Gagner · Slap, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 4:20ARISam GagnerAssists: Brandon Gormley, Martin Hanzal · Tip-in, 0.04 xG5–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:39ARIKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:39EDMSteven Pinizzotto: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:11ARIMartin Erat: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:47ARISam Gagner: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:08ARIZbynek Michalek: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:37EDMLuke Gazdic: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:17ARIKeith Yandle: Holding2 min
- P3 12:27ARIKyle Chipchura: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:17EDMNail Yakupov: Interference2 min
- P3 15:37ARIMartin Erat: Elbowing2 min
- P3 19:45EDMDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:45ARIConnor Murphy: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Chipchura – Rieder10:15
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Vitale – McMillan5:57
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker11:05
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Erat – Hanzal – Gagner10:15
xG 0.22–0.34 (40%)attempts 10–8goals 4–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Stone15:52
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Gormley – Murphy12:36
xG 0.28–0.41 (41%)attempts 14–12goals 4–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson13:44
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Yakupov – Draisaitl9:22
xG 0.49–0.16 (76%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Perron – Eberle – Arcobello2:49
xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 1–2goals 0–2
- Purcell – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins10:12
xG 0.05–0.08 (37%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Pinizzotto – Gazdic – Arcobello2:51
xG 0.01–0.11 (11%)attempts 2–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Petry9:52
xG 0.21–0.13 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Petry – Klefbom2:53
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Schultz – Hunt10:48
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).