Tue, Dec 23, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Dallas Stars 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 211 | 17 | 426 |
| DAL | 011 | 013 | 019 | 043 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:55TORNazem KadriGWGAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 6:21TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Bernier · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 10:30TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Phil Kessel · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 16:09TORMike SantorelliENAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–0
Penalties (17)
- P1 5:58TORMorgan Rielly: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:29TORDavid Clarkson: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:56DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:33DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:33TORDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:58TORPeter Holland: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:20DALRyan Garbutt: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:05DALJordie Benn: Holding2 min
- P3 0:38DALJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:51TORNazem Kadri: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 10:03DALJordie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:03DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:03TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:20TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:20DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:20DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:20TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Clarkson – Winnik – Smith3:44
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Booth – Smith – Panik3:18
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Winnik – Holland5:31
xG 0.05–0.19 (20%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Santorelli – van Riemsdyk – Kadri7:59
xG 0.18–0.41 (31%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Franson10:36
xG 0.36–0.45 (44%)attempts 6–15goals 2–0
- Robidas – Rielly9:51
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner12:19
xG 0.40–0.94 (30%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Fiddler – Sceviour7:07
xG 0.91–0.12 (88%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin4:25
xG 0.74–0.03 (96%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Hemsky – Morin2:23
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Morin – Eakin – Garbutt2:03
xG 0.07–0.03 (71%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg12:32
xG 1.47–0.54 (73%)attempts 22–8goals 0–0
- Daley – Jokipakka7:32
xG 0.62–0.20 (75%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Demers – Benn10:47
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).