Sat, Dec 27, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 210 | 014 | 03 | 0 | 336 |
| BUF | 010 | 07 | 36 | 03 | 1 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:33NYINick LeddyAssists: Kyle Okposo, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 11:56NYIJohn TavaresUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 15:05NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 6:39BUFNicolas DeslauriersAssists: Drew Stafford, Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 10:01BUFZemgus GirgensonsSHAssists: Nicolas Deslauriers, Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 11:51BUFChris StewartAssists: Drew Stafford, Patrick Kaleta · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Matt Moulson stopped
- 2. NYI Kyle Okposo stopped
- 3. BUF Tyler Ennis scored
- 4. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 5. BUF Zemgus Girgensons stopped
- 6. NYI John Tavares stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:10BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:10NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00BUFChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:46NYIKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:16NYIThomas Hickey: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:28NYICalvin de Haan: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:39BUFDrew Stafford: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 14:53NYIMatt Martin: Holding2 min
- P3 14:53BUFZemgus Girgensons: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Flynn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Lee – Nelson – Strome7:08
xG 0.08–0.07 (51%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Kulemin11:27
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:21
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares11:09
xG 0.41–0.59 (41%)attempts 12–9goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- Hamonic – de Haan15:30
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Boychuk – Leddy13:52
xG 0.53–0.58 (48%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey14:59
xG 0.45–0.76 (37%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcCormick – Kaleta – Larsson8:37
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons10:55
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
- Stafford – Deslauriers – Flynn12:19
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Stewart – Hodgson – Grigorenko8:18
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen5:58
xG 0.55–0.03 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Weber – Zadorov4:06
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Gorges – Benoit6:49
xG 0.17–0.14 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).