Sat, Dec 27, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 07 | 111 | 13 | 327 |
| OTT | 110 | 115 | 07 | 01 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:41OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Mark Borowiecki, Bobby Ryan · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 19:46DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 13:16OTTClarke MacArthurUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 3:58DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 4:12DETGustav NyquistGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:33OTTColin Greening: Interference2 min
- P1 14:06DETTomas Tatar: Interference2 min
- P2 0:44DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:12OTTAlex Chiasson: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:00DETBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:55OTTMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:07DETJonathan Ericsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:31DETTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:54DETGustav Nyquist: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:54OTTMilan Michalek: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Sheahan – Jurco3:10
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Franzen – Helm – Nyquist8:28
xG 0.34–0.27 (55%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Weiss – Tatar – Sheahan3:38
xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader11:08
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson16:03
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Quincey – DeKeyser11:50
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Kindl – Smith10:11
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Turris – Stone11:12
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Legwand – Greening – Condra7:22
xG 0.43–0.20 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad10:14
xG 0.25–0.27 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Michalek – Chiasson – Pageau8:37
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Wiercioch7:33
xG 0.43–0.04 (91%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Borowiecki11:21
xG 0.49–0.31 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Wiercioch5:15
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).