Sat, Dec 27, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 19 | 016 | 29 | 334 |
| PIT | 09 | 010 | 012 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:47WSHEric FehrGWGAssists: Jay Beagle, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P3 5:36WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 10:16WSHEric FehrAssists: Joel Ward, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:06PITBrandon Sutter: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:49WSHTroy Brouwer: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:17PITPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:05PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:25WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P2 15:42PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:13WSHNicklas Backstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:39WSHTroy Brouwer: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:13PITBobby Farnham: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWard – Laich – Fehr7:44
xG 0.93–0.22 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Laich – Fehr – Beagle2:03
xG 0.47–0.04 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov6:22
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson8:32
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson15:01
xG 1.06–0.38 (74%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Orpik – Niskanen2:24
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner12:39
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Crosby2:49
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Goc – Klinkhammer – Spaling2:12
xG 0.00–0.08 (4%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Goc – Spaling – Farnham3:59
xG 0.24–0.35 (41%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Sutter4:04
xG 0.02–0.17 (10%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Scuderi – Letang5:44
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Bortuzzo2:51
xG 0.02–0.05 (25%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Despres4:58
xG 0.09–0.17 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).