Sat, Dec 27, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 18 | 27 | 11 | 423 |
| MIN | 18 | 08 | 28 | 01 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:03MINMikael GranlundAssists: Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 7:17WPGBryan LittleAssists: Andrew Ladd, Grant Clitsome · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 1:52WPGAdam LowryAssists: Evander Kane, Matt Halischuk · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–1
- P3 10:38MINJason PominvilleAssists: Stu Bickel, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 12:09WPGBlake WheelerSHAssists: Evander Kane, Dustin Byfuglien · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 12:41MINThomas VanekPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Marco Scandella · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 2:47WPGAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:48WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:48MINStu Bickel: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:48MINRyan Carter: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:53MINRyan Carter: Interference2 min
- P1 10:27WPGAdam Pardy: Interference2 min
- P1 18:20WPGAnthony Peluso: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:10WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
- P3 11:09WPGAndrew Ladd: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:59MINMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:43WPGPaul Postma: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestHalischuk – Kane – Lowry10:26
xG 0.65–0.22 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Peluso3:29
xG 0.01–0.02 (38%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Frolik – Perreault – Scheifele11:44
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:26
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Postma9:28
xG 0.68–0.20 (78%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot12:51
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Harrison – Clitsome15:49
xG 0.17–0.39 (30%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Coyle – Niederreiter10:33
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund10:00
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Brodziak – Carter – Fontaine4:22
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Cooke – Vanek – Haula7:01
xG 0.22–0.46 (33%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon4:08
xG 0.30–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Suter – Brodin12:54
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Scandella – Spurgeon15:11
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).