Mon, Dec 29, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Rangers 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 29 | 011 | 010 | 230 |
| DAL | 29 | 19 | 09 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:57NYRJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 9:02DALJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Erik Cole, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 15:46DALAles HemskyAssists: Jason Demers · Backhand, 0.01 xG1–2
- P1 16:46NYRKevin HayesAssists: Marc Staal, Dan Boyle · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 0:54DALAntoine RousselGWGAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Cody Eakin · Backhand, 0.25 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:48DALJason Demers: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:24NYRTanner Glass: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:22NYRTanner Glass: Interference2 min
- P2 18:40DALTyler Seguin: Holding2 min
- P2 0:00NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DALJason Demers: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:00NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:20NYRDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Moore – Glass – Miller4:44
xG 0.11–0.07 (58%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello11:36
xG 0.36–0.43 (45%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Stepan – Kreider13:35
xG 0.46–0.84 (35%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Hagelin – Hayes7:42
xG 0.16–0.61 (20%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Staal12:48
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Klein – Staal3:07
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–1
- Klein – McDonagh2:53
xG 0.02–0.19 (12%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Sceviour – Seguin12:20
xG 0.87–0.35 (71%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt9:09
xG 0.35–0.04 (91%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Moen – Fiddler8:33
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Cole – Spezza – Hemsky10:01
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Benn14:56
xG 0.64–0.19 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Daley – Jokipakka14:08
xG 0.69–0.43 (61%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg13:49
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).