Mon, Dec 29, 2014·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Arizona Coyotes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 014 | 05 | 213 | 232 |
| ARI | 16 | 19 | 210 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:26ARIShane DoanAssists: Antoine Vermette, Mikkel Boedker · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 15:31ARIAntoine VermetteAssists: Zbynek Michalek, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 2:48ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPGWGAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 12:11PHIR.J. UmbergerAssists: Mark Streit, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 15:13PHIR.J. UmbergerAssists: Sean Couturier, Matt Read · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:32ARIAntoine VermetteENAssists: Martin Hanzal, Lauri Korpikoski · Slap, 0.61 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 19:53PHIR.J. Umberger: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:02PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:02ARIMichael Stone: Holding2 min
- P3 13:09ARIDavid Moss: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare10:04
xG 0.83–0.19 (81%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Umberger – Read – Couturier11:27
xG 0.58–0.11 (83%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Laughton9:11
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl11:49
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Coburn14:47
xG 0.89–0.15 (85%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Schenn15:29
xG 0.74–0.30 (71%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Streit – Grossmann16:37
xG 0.40–0.44 (48%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Chipchura – Rieder11:01
xG 0.29–0.18 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker11:57
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Erat – Hanzal – Gagner11:30
xG 0.16–0.61 (20%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – McMillan – Gaudet7:11
xG 0.04–0.82 (5%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson15:59
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Gormley – Murphy11:37
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Yandle – Stone18:51
xG 0.31–1.50 (17%)attempts 12–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).