Wed, Dec 31, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
New York Islanders 5, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 212 | 113 | 28 | 533 |
| WPG | 07 | 111 | 15 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:04NYIRyan StromeAssists: Anders Lee, Nick Leddy · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 18:16NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Ryan Strome · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 4:41WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Blake Wheeler, Paul Postma · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 15:27NYIFrans NielsenGWGAssists: Ryan Strome · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 0:47WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Bryan Little · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 11:35NYIAnders LeeAssists: Ryan Strome, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–2
- P3 19:28NYIJosh BaileyENAssists: Travis Hamonic, Calvin de Haan · Snap, 0.63 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:34WPGAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:56NYICalvin de Haan: Holding2 min
- P1 11:43NYIMikhail Grabovski: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 16:30WPGJay Harrison: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:00WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:40NYICal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min
- P2 5:32WPGBlake Wheeler: Interference2 min
- P2 19:18NYIMikhail Grabovski: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:38WPGMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:54WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:27WPGDustin Byfuglien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Lee – Strome6:25
xG 1.14–0.17 (87%)attempts 13–4goals 3–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Nelson6:58
xG 0.59–0.13 (82%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares12:09
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:43
xG 0.21–0.29 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy8:30
xG 1.18–0.18 (87%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Hamonic – de Haan13:38
xG 0.87–0.39 (69%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Visnovsky – Hickey9:37
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Slater – Galiardi – Peluso3:01
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Frolik – Perreault – Scheifele10:18
xG 0.36–0.48 (43%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:20
xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Galiardi – Halischuk – Lowry3:17
xG 0.11–0.40 (22%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClitsome – Postma2:06
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Harrison – Clitsome11:14
xG 0.35–0.53 (40%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot13:03
xG 0.36–0.89 (28%)attempts 12–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).