Wed, Dec 31, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
New Jersey Devils 1, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 04 | 18 | 01 | 113 |
| DET | 08 | 19 | 211 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:37NJDJoe WhitneyAssists: Tim Sestito · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 17:56DETDarren HelmAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Johan Franzen · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 14:59DETHenrik ZetterbergGWGAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Pavel Datsyuk · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 15:35DETDarren HelmAssists: Johan Franzen, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:15NJDJaromir Jagr: Holding2 min
- P1 13:56NJDJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:16DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:37NJDDainius Zubrus: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:52DETXavier Ouellet: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:59DETTomas Jurco: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:47NJDAdam Henrique: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Bernier – Henrique6:47
xG 0.46–0.19 (71%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Tootoo – Sestito – Whitney5:35
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Henrique – Sislo2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Zajac – Sislo10:23
xG 0.08–0.28 (22%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Harrold6:54
xG 0.31–0.16 (65%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Gelinas – Larsson2:55
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Merrill11:52
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader11:59
xG 0.48–0.04 (92%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco9:39
xG 0.31–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Franzen – Helm – Nyquist9:54
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Weiss – Miller – Glendening3:38
xG 0.06–0.19 (23%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson11:01
xG 0.47–0.17 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Smith – Ouellet12:13
xG 0.65–0.50 (56%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Quincey – DeKeyser14:48
xG 0.22–0.08 (74%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).