Wed, Dec 31, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Arizona Coyotes 0, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 07 | 013 | 012 | 032 |
| DAL | 03 | 214 | 414 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:22DALBrett RitchieGWGAssists: Travis Moen, Vernon Fiddler · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 8:25DALColton SceviourAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 1:19DALJamie BennPPAssists: Cody Eakin, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 6:20DALCody EakinAssists: Antoine Roussel, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 13:33DALAles HemskyAssists: Jason Demers, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.02 xG0–5
- P3 19:02DALRyan GarbuttAssists: Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:17DALColton Sceviour: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:34ARITobias Rieder: Delaying game2 min
- P2 8:34DALJohn Klingberg: Delaying game2 min
- P2 12:07DALJason Demers: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:28ARIShane Doan: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chipchura won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestErat – Hanzal – Gagner11:44
xG 0.71–0.37 (66%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker11:21
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Moss – Chipchura – Rieder2:22
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Rieder – Gaudet4:16
xG 0.06–0.22 (23%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson15:54
xG 0.69–0.60 (54%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
- Yandle – Stone17:02
xG 0.15–0.76 (16%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
- Gormley – Murphy14:22
xG 0.15–1.09 (12%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMoen – Fiddler – Ritchie9:23
xG 0.60–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt10:38
xG 0.78–0.45 (63%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- Benn – Sceviour – Seguin12:13
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Cole – Spezza – Hemsky10:37
xG 0.38–0.50 (43%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Benn14:43
xG 1.20–0.12 (91%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg15:28
xG 1.14–0.95 (54%)attempts 21–14goals 3–0
- Daley – Oleksiak13:24
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).