Wed, Dec 31, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 3, Calgary Flames 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 16 | 18 | 16 | 00 | 320 |
| CGY | 07 | 111 | 28 | 12 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:06EDMMatt FraserPPAssists: David Perron, Nail Yakupov · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 10:28EDMJordan EberleAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 18:01CGYJoe ColbornePPAssists: Sean Monahan, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 4:28CGYLance BoumaAssists: Paul Byron, Raphael Diaz · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 9:29EDMAndrew FerenceAssists: Leon Draisaitl, David Perron · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 11:55CGYJoe ColborneAssists: Sean Monahan, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
- OT 1:08CGYJosh JoorisGWGAssists: Jiri Hudler, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:51EDMMark Fayne: Interference2 min
- P1 8:38EDMKeith Aulie: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:19CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:05EDMKeith Aulie: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P2 6:58CGYJoe Colborne: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:50CGYCurtis Glencross: Elbowing2 min
- P2 16:58EDMTyler Pitlick: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:18EDMTaylor Hall: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:01EDMJeff Petry: Embellishment2 min
- P3 19:01CGYJosh Jooris: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Jooris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:01
xG 0.68–0.28 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Perron – Fraser – Draisaitl8:40
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Roy – Purcell – Yakupov6:32
xG 0.15–0.27 (35%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Gordon – Pitlick7:43
xG 0.04–0.19 (19%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Klefbom3:41
xG 0.62–0.04 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Ference – Schultz7:51
xG 0.29–0.05 (86%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Ference – Petry9:23
xG 0.10–0.13 (45%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Jooris8:38
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Glencross – Colborne – Monahan5:35
xG 0.27–0.05 (85%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Byron – Bouma – Granlund2:39
xG 0.12–0.06 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Jones – Glencross – Monahan4:04
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie14:42
xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Engelland – Diaz7:57
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Wideman – Russell15:14
xG 0.32–0.78 (29%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).