Sat, Jan 3, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Arizona Coyotes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 08 | 210 | 18 | 326 |
| ARI | 111 | 318 | 25 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:17ARITobias RiederAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Kyle Chipchura · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 2:35CBJFedor TyutinAssists: Jack Skille, Sean Collins · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 4:39CBJJames WisniewskiPPAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 6:33ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Martin Hanzal, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–2
- P2 18:33ARISam GagnerPPAssists: Martin Hanzal, Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 19:17ARIMartin HanzalGWGAssists: Sam Gagner, Martin Erat · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–4
- P3 3:37ARIKyle ChipchuraAssists: Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–5
- P3 5:03ARISam GagnerPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–6
- P3 19:00CBJRyan JohansenUnassisted · Slap, 0.10 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:36ARIBrandon McMillan: Boarding2 min
- P1 7:17CBJDalton Prout: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:39ARIConnor Murphy: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 3:16ARIMartin Erat: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:29CBJDalton Prout: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:19CBJRyan Johansen: Throwing equipment2 min · PPG
- P3 4:45CBJAlexander Wennberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:44CBJJack Skille: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:44ARIJoe Vitale: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:31CBJScott Hartnell: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chipchura won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Foligno – Calvert8:58
xG 0.37–0.07 (85%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Skille – Collins – Wennberg8:58
xG 0.16–0.31 (35%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Boll – Tropp – Chaput7:24
xG 0.03–0.54 (5%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Morin – Johansen10:08
xG 0.19–0.77 (19%)attempts 2–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard15:00
xG 0.43–0.05 (89%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Prout16:33
xG 0.17–0.66 (20%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Wisniewski – Connauton14:40
xG 0.35–1.14 (24%)attempts 8–21goals 0–2
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestErat – Hanzal – Gagner10:10
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Moss – Vitale – McMillan5:48
xG 0.40–0.09 (82%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Chipchura – Korpikoski – Rieder11:39
xG 0.50–0.22 (70%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker12:41
xG 0.31–0.28 (53%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson17:03
xG 0.81–0.41 (67%)attempts 16–11goals 2–1
- Yandle – Stone16:00
xG 0.72–0.41 (64%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Gormley – Murphy13:07
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).