Sun, Jan 4, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Florida Panthers 3, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 04 | 214 | 114 | 332 |
| WSH | 08 | 313 | 15 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:16WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 3:57FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Willie Mitchell, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
- P2 5:22FLADylan OlsenAssists: Shane O'Brien, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 12:13WSHBrooks LaichAssists: John Carlson, Brooks Orpik · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 19:06WSHKarl AlznerAssists: Eric Fehr · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 5:42WSHAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Jack Hillen · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 18:01FLANick BjugstadAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Dave Bolland · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:07WSHJay Beagle: Interference2 min
- P1 5:13FLASean Bergenheim: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:13WSHMike Green: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:37FLABrandon Pirri: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00FLADave Bolland: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:42WSHMatt Niskanen: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:29WSHKarl Alzner: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:51WSHJohn Carlson: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:04WSHBrooks Orpik: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Pirri – Trocheck7:37
xG 1.04–0.12 (90%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Hayes – Bjugstad – Huberdeau9:29
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Barkov10:22
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Upshall – Bolland9:27
xG 0.14–0.39 (27%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Kulikov16:17
xG 1.22–0.72 (63%)attempts 18–18goals 1–0
- Campbell – Ekblad13:29
xG 0.53–0.08 (87%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Olsen8:48
xG 0.07–0.37 (15%)attempts 3–20goals 1–3
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWard – Laich – Fehr7:38
xG 0.33–0.12 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 2–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Burakovsky12:05
xG 0.35–0.25 (59%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson9:11
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov9:47
xG 0.15–1.23 (11%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner14:33
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Orpik – Carlson15:21
xG 0.48–0.68 (41%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
- Green – Hillen11:25
xG 0.33–0.84 (28%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).