Tue, Jan 6, 2015·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 2, Chicago Blackhawks 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 211 | 05 | 08 | 224 |
| CHI | 017 | 021 | 016 | 054 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: John Mitchell, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 1:17COLMax TalbotAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:24COLJan Hejda: Holding2 min
- P2 3:53COLCody McLeod: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:28COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:28CHIMarcus Kruger: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:41CHIJonathan Toews: Interference2 min
- P3 10:41CHIJonathan Toews: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:27COLBorna Rendulic: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Iginla won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Mitchell – MacKinnon9:38
xG 0.64–0.46 (58%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – O'Reilly9:37
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Duchene – Landeskog – Rendulic9:31
xG 0.24–0.54 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Brière – McLeod – Cliche6:10
xG 0.08–0.47 (15%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Johnson2:08
xG 0.19–0.05 (81%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Stuart – Holden13:01
xG 0.48–0.65 (43%)attempts 8–19goals 1–0
- Guenin – Barrie9:03
xG 0.12–0.39 (24%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Shaw – Teravainen3:28
xG 0.28–0.06 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Kruger – Nordstrom5:27
xG 0.22–0.11 (68%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Richards – Kane – Teravainen2:35
xG 0.09–0.06 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sharp – Bickell – Shaw3:05
xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Rundblad13:14
xG 1.06–0.22 (83%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Keith2:32
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson13:06
xG 0.52–0.58 (48%)attempts 19–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).