Tue, Jan 6, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
St. Louis Blues 6, Arizona Coyotes 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 117 | 316 | 26 | 639 |
| ARI | 09 | 05 | 09 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:57STLPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Dmitrij Jaskin, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–0
- P2 6:15STLDavid BackesPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 7:21STLDavid BackesPPAssists: T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 14:53STLDavid BackesAssists: Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–0
- P3 3:15STLDavid BackesAssists: Alexander Steen, T.J. Oshie · Tip-in, 0.16 xG5–0
- P3 5:53STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Alexander Steen · Tip-in, 0.23 xG6–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:00STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:52ARISam Gagner: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:30ARIKyle Chipchura: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:48ARIB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:48STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:23ARITobias Rieder: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:29ARIKyle Chipchura: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:57ARIShane Doan: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Berglund – Jaskin11:53
xG 1.16–0.23 (83%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:02
xG 0.87–0.40 (68%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie11:03
xG 0.61–0.21 (74%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Ott – Lapierre – Reaves9:07
xG 0.06–0.13 (30%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Butler14:56
xG 1.74–0.40 (81%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson13:04
xG 0.78–0.22 (78%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo17:01
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Crombeen – Vitale – McMillan5:07
xG 0.12–0.13 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Rieder5:13
xG 0.07–0.17 (29%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker5:15
xG 0.04–0.15 (22%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Erat – Moss – Vitale2:24
xG 0.04–0.16 (19%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Yandle2:23
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gormley – Murphy14:23
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson14:18
xG 0.26–0.68 (28%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).