Wed, Jan 7, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Detroit Red Wings 3, Calgary Flames 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 18 | 17 | 322 |
| CGY | 111 | 08 | 111 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:27CGYMason RaymondAssists: David Jones, Mikael Backlund · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 7:58DETRiley SheahanAssists: Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 17:28DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 2:03DETJustin AbdelkaderPPGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–1
- P3 5:13CGYMikael BacklundSHAssists: Paul Byron, TJ Brodie · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:21DETJustin Abdelkader: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:10DETStephen Weiss: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:45DETJustin Abdelkader: Holding2 min
- P3 1:17CGYJosh Jooris: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:21CGYJoe Colborne: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:02DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Helm – Tatar12:51
xG 0.47–0.19 (72%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Weiss – Miller – Sheahan8:23
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Cleary – Andersson – Glendening6:00
xG 0.07–0.18 (26%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist11:51
xG 0.41–0.84 (33%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Ouellet11:23
xG 0.43–0.34 (55%)attempts 17–11goals 2–1
- Kronwall – Ericsson16:00
xG 0.38–0.46 (45%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser16:35
xG 0.39–0.72 (35%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGlencross – Byron – Monahan8:23
xG 0.70–0.37 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Colborne – Gaudreau – Jooris9:54
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Jones – Raymond – Backlund6:48
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Jones – Glencross – Backlund3:28
xG 0.07–0.02 (80%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie18:07
xG 0.88–0.41 (68%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Engelland – Diaz6:24
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Wideman – Russell15:44
xG 0.39–0.35 (52%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).