Wed, Jan 7, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
New York Rangers 4, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 011 | 18 | 311 | 430 |
| ANA | 08 | 010 | 17 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:10NYRDerick BrassardAssists: J.T. Miller, Marc Staal · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 2:32NYRRick NashGWGAssists: Kevin Klein · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 10:09ANAFrancois BeaucheminPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 14:27NYRMats ZuccarelloUnassisted · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 17:46NYRDominic MooreENAssists: Lee Stempniak, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.57 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:51NYRDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:21ANARyan Getzlaf: Interference2 min
- P3 7:12NYRRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:59NYRDerek Stepan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Hayes – Fast10:47
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Moore – Stempniak – Miller10:03
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello13:33
xG 0.49–0.55 (47%)attempts 14–17goals 2–0
- St. Louis – Stepan – Kreider14:57
xG 0.37–0.79 (32%)attempts 11–23goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Moore12:17
xG 0.72–0.14 (83%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Klein – Staal2:17
xG 0.01–0.01 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Staal17:47
xG 0.29–0.47 (38%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Bourque13:42
xG 0.89–0.48 (65%)attempts 22–13goals 0–1
- Kesler – Beleskey – Palmieri11:52
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Thompson – Maroon – Smith-Pelly2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Thompson – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:55
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen19:23
xG 0.89–0.65 (58%)attempts 22–18goals 0–1
- Lovejoy – Fowler16:17
xG 0.63–0.68 (48%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm16:29
xG 0.45–0.59 (43%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).