Thu, Jan 8, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Buffalo Sabres 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 16 | 19 | 220 |
| CAR | 010 | 417 | 14 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:52CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Alexander Semin, Ryan Murphy · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 5:51BUFPhil VaroneAssists: Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 13:50CARJiri TlustyPPAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.38 xG1–2
- P2 14:43CAREric StaalGWGAssists: Ryan Murphy, John-Michael Liles · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 15:09CARVictor RaskAssists: Ron Hainsey · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 8:17BUFPhil VaroneAssists: Tyson Strachan, Mike Weber · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 10:10CARRiley NashAssists: Justin Faulk, Jiri Tlusty · Snap, 0.41 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:09CARJiri Tlusty: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:04CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:52BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:40BUFTyson Strachan: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:22BUFTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:12CARJohn-Michael Liles: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 11:30CARRyan Murphy: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Varone
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHodgson – Deslauriers – Grigorenko11:39
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- McCormick – Kaleta – Schaller6:54
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stewart – Varone – Flynn10:20
xG 0.53–0.58 (48%)attempts 8–17goals 2–1
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons11:21
xG 0.27–0.58 (32%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Weber14:42
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Strachan – Zadorov2:11
xG 0.02–0.03 (41%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gorges – Myers17:08
xG 0.38–0.82 (32%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Dwyer – Malone7:13
xG 0.54–0.14 (79%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Gerbe – Tlusty – Nash5:52
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Semin – Nash – Skinner5:54
xG 0.35–0.08 (81%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Semin – Skinner – Rask4:35
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Murphy10:09
xG 0.55–0.11 (83%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Liles11:42
xG 0.56–0.20 (74%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Sekera – Faulk13:01
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).