Thu, Jan 8, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 210 | 05 | 25 | 420 |
| MIN | 07 | 119 | 118 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:08CHIPatrick SharpAssists: David Rundblad, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 16:19CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Brad Richards, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 1:03MINJason ZuckerAssists: Jason Pominville, Mikko Koivu · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 6:20CHIBryan BickellGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Brad Richards · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 14:55MINJason PominvillePPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Nino Niederreiter · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:00CHIBryan BickellENAssists: Brad Richards, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:17CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:05MINThomas Vanek: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 5:59CHIPatrick Sharp: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:01CHIPatrick Sharp: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:35MINThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:23CHIJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:48CHIMichal Rozsival: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Sharp – Smith – Shaw8:24
xG 0.51–0.62 (45%)attempts 6–18goals 1–0
- Hossa – Toews – Saad10:06
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Carcillo – Kruger – Nordstrom6:25
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Bickell – Kane9:24
xG 0.37–0.81 (31%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Oduya – Seabrook5:47
xG 0.13–0.13 (51%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook9:17
xG 0.12–0.22 (34%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
- Keith – Hjalmarsson5:10
xG 0.25–0.39 (40%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Brodziak – Carter7:27
xG 0.80–0.19 (81%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Vanek – Schroeder – Haula8:40
xG 0.67–0.25 (73%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Coyle – Niederreiter – Fontaine9:14
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Zucker11:14
xG 0.26–0.51 (34%)attempts 10–4goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon16:12
xG 1.08–0.13 (89%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Suter – Brodin2:08
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Falk – Blum5:09
xG 0.28–0.06 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).