Fri, Jan 9, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 16 | 19 | 06 | 221 |
| EDM | 27 | 18 | 27 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:34CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa · Snap, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 8:52EDMBenoit PouliotAssists: Derek Roy · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 13:35EDMDerek RoyPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Anton Lander · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 5:47CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Marian Hossa, Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 6:33EDMJeff PetryGWGAssists: Nail Yakupov, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–3
- P3 16:51EDMNail YakupovAssists: Taylor Hall, Andrew Ference · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 17:34EDMTaylor HallENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:12CHIDavid Rundblad: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:24EDMMatt Hendricks: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 8:31EDMRob Klinkhammer: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:15CHIBryan Bickell: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad10:23
xG 1.37–0.26 (84%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Sharp – Shaw – Teravainen10:32
xG 0.58–0.23 (72%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Richards – Kane – Smith3:32
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Sharp – Smith – Shaw2:18
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson4:28
xG 0.58–0.03 (96%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Rundblad12:08
xG 0.39–0.17 (69%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson13:46
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Pouliot – Yakupov10:08
xG 0.51–0.26 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Purcell – Lander – Fraser9:24
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer10:38
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins13:55
xG 0.19–1.62 (11%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Petry17:09
xG 1.10–0.32 (78%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Petry – Klefbom2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Schultz – Klefbom14:49
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).