Sat, Jan 10, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 3, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 110 | 04 | 24 | 318 |
| PHI | 08 | 08 | 19 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:23BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara · Backhand, 0.28 xG1–0
- P3 4:58BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: David Krejci, Adam McQuaid · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 9:51BOSChris KellySHAssists: Loui Eriksson, Zdeno Chara · Snap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 14:13PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Mark Streit, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:07BOSAdam McQuaid: Instigator2 min
- P1 0:07BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:07BOSAdam McQuaid: Misconduct10 min
- P1 0:07PHINick Schultz: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:27PHIVincent Lecavalier: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:21PHIJakub Voracek: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:10BOSGregory Campbell: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:00PHIAndrew MacDonald: Holding2 min
- P2 8:33PHIMark Streit: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:18BOSDavid Pastrnak: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:56BOSAdam McQuaid: Holding2 min
- P3 11:57BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:04BOSAdam McQuaid: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Eriksson – Soderberg – Smith6:27
xG 0.14–0.13 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg2:58
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Kelly – Campbell – Cunningham4:31
xG 0.06–0.08 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Krejci – Marchand – Pastrnak8:03
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Miller – Krug7:17
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid8:01
xG 0.21–0.22 (48%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Chara – Miller2:17
xG 0.02–0.06 (28%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Read – Couturier8:32
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Schenn9:55
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare4:05
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Laughton – Raffl5:19
xG 0.01–0.04 (29%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Coburn10:38
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Streit – MacDonald13:01
xG 0.23–0.07 (76%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Del Zotto10:37
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).