Sun, Jan 11, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Florida Panthers 4, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 110 | 26 | 427 |
| EDM | 09 | 114 | 110 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01FLAJimmy HayesAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 4:07EDMJordan EberleAssists: Taylor Hall, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 6:56FLABrian CampbellAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Jussi Jokinen · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 5:08FLATomas KopeckyGWGAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Scottie Upshall · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 5:40EDMBenoit PouliotAssists: Derek Roy, Nikita Nikitin · Snap, 0.26 xG3–2
- P3 15:28FLASean BergenheimAssists: Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 18:49FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:06EDMMark Fayne: Interference2 min
- P3 8:21EDMAndrew Ference: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:23EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:23FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:31FLAErik Gudbranson: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Kopecky – Upshall9:04
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Hayes – Bjugstad11:28
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Boyes – Pirri – Huberdeau10:29
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Bergenheim – Bolland10:36
xG 0.45–0.71 (39%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOlsen – Gudbranson11:40
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Kulikov15:41
xG 0.69–0.63 (52%)attempts 10–20goals 1–0
- Campbell – Ekblad15:37
xG 0.41–0.35 (53%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins15:16
xG 0.89–0.33 (73%)attempts 20–7goals 1–1
- Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer10:22
xG 0.06–0.25 (18%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Purcell – Lander – Fraser9:39
xG 0.18–0.52 (26%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Roy – Pouliot – Yakupov10:54
xG 0.19–0.60 (24%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Klefbom19:23
xG 0.92–0.85 (52%)attempts 24–17goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Fayne12:48
xG 0.12–0.37 (25%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
- Ference – Petry14:46
xG 0.29–0.57 (33%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).