Mon, Jan 12, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Colorado Avalanche 1, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 17 | 018 | 132 |
| WSH | 112 | 120 | 06 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:34WSHJay BeagleAssists: Jason Chimera, Tom Wilson · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 10:58COLAlex TanguayPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 17:46WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: Troy Brouwer, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:59COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:42COLCody McLeod: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 4:42WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:20COLNate Guenin: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:09WSHJoel Ward: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:34COLSemyon Varlamov: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:50WSHEric Fehr: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Mitchell – MacKinnon11:31
xG 0.48–0.17 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Brière – Duchene – Landeskog3:52
xG 0.28–0.27 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Brière – McLeod – Cliche3:58
xG 0.00–0.15 (1%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Iginla – Tanguay – O'Reilly11:03
xG 0.20–0.87 (19%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Barrie3:01
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Stuart – Barrie2:26
xG 0.21–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie2:04
xG 0.01–0.02 (34%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Burakovsky12:26
xG 0.91–0.13 (87%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Ward – Laich – Fehr9:06
xG 0.66–0.32 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov11:18
xG 0.73–0.49 (60%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson8:03
xG 0.22–0.54 (29%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson18:08
xG 1.72–0.14 (92%)attempts 30–12goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner15:02
xG 0.56–0.66 (46%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Green – Hillen10:25
xG 0.37–0.74 (33%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).