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Ice Lab

Mon, Jan 12, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington

Colorado Avalanche 1, Washington Capitals 2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.

WSH winsCOL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:50Shot by Wilson, saved by Varlamov
  3. P1 3:18Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Holtby
  4. P1 7:34Goal by Beagle (Chimera, Wilson)+18 pts WP

    On ice: WSH Chimera, Green, Beagle, Hillen, Wilson · COL Brière, Hejda, McLeod, Cliche, Johnson

  5. P1 9:00Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Holtby
  6. P1 9:08Shot by Mitchell, saved by Holtby
  7. P1 9:46Shot by Kuznetsov, saved by Varlamov
  8. P1 10:04Shot by Iginla, saved by Holtby
  9. P1 11:52Shot by Johnson, saved by Holtby
  10. P1 12:14Shot by Holden, saved by Holtby
  11. P1 12:40Shot by Alzner, saved by Varlamov
  12. P1 12:55Shot by Laich, saved by Varlamov
  13. P1 13:10Shot by Ward, saved by Varlamov
  14. P1 13:17Shot by Orpik, saved by Varlamov
  15. P1 13:48Shot by Landeskog, saved by Holtby
  16. P1 14:59Landeskog: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: WSH Ovechkin, Green, Brouwer, Hillen, Kuznetsov · COL Stuart, Mitchell, Johnson, Landeskog, MacKinnon

  17. P1 15:24Shot by Brouwer, saved by Varlamov5v4
  18. P1 16:15Shot by Green, saved by Varlamov5v4
  19. P1 17:03Shot by Ward, saved by Varlamov
  20. P1 18:19Shot by Laich, saved by Varlamov
  21. P1 18:58Shot by Ovechkin, saved by Varlamov
  22. P1 0:00Period end
  23. P2 0:00Period start
  24. P2 0:15Shot by Fehr, saved by Varlamov
  25. P2 0:16Shot by Alzner, saved by Varlamov
  26. P2 1:19Shot by Carlson, saved by Varlamov
  27. P2 2:23Shot by Alzner, saved by Varlamov
  28. P2 2:32Shot by Green, saved by Varlamov
  29. P2 3:03Shot by Orpik, saved by Varlamov
  30. P2 3:26Shot by Duchene, saved by Holtby
  31. P2 4:29Shot by Talbot, saved by Holtby
  32. P2 4:42McLeod: Unsportsmanlike conduct (2 min)

    On ice: WSH Chimera, Niskanen, Alzner, Beagle, Wilson · COL Brière, Guenin, McLeod, Cliche, Barrie

  33. P2 4:42Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct (2 min)5v4

    On ice: WSH Chimera, Niskanen, Alzner, Beagle, Wilson · COL Brière, Guenin, McLeod, Cliche, Barrie

  34. P2 6:48Shot by Carlson, saved by Varlamov
  35. P2 6:53Shot by Wilson, saved by Varlamov
  36. P2 7:18Shot by Wilson, saved by Varlamov
  37. P2 7:20Guenin: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: WSH Chimera, Green, Beagle, Hillen, Wilson · COL Iginla, Guenin, Mitchell, McLeod, Barrie

  38. P2 7:57Shot by Green, saved by Varlamov5v4
  39. P2 8:12Shot by Cliche, saved by Holtby5v4
  40. P2 9:09Ward: Tripping (2 min)5v4

    On ice: WSH Ward, Ovechkin, Green, Backstrom, Johansson · COL Stuart, Holden, Duchene, Landeskog

  41. P2 9:57Shot by Fehr, saved by Varlamov4v5
  42. P2 10:10Shot by Niskanen, saved by Varlamov4v5
  43. P2 10:58Shot by Tanguay, saved by Holtby4v5
  44. P2 10:58Goal by Tanguay (Iginla, Barrie)4v5+21 pts WP

    On ice: WSH Chimera, Orpik, Beagle, Carlson · COL Iginla, Tanguay, Holden, O'Reilly, Barrie

  45. P2 11:13Shot by Kuznetsov, saved by Varlamov
  46. P2 11:14Shot by Kuznetsov, saved by Varlamov
  47. P2 13:32Shot by Ward, saved by Varlamov
  48. P2 13:48Shot by Laich, saved by Varlamov
  49. P2 16:34Varlamov: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: WSH Chimera, Orpik, Beagle, Carlson, Wilson · COL Brière, Hejda, McLeod, Cliche, Holden

  50. P2 16:46Shot by Brouwer, saved by Varlamov5v4
  51. P2 17:04Shot by Green, saved by Varlamov5v4
  52. P2 17:46Goal by Ovechkin (Brouwer, Backstrom)5v4+24 pts WP

    On ice: WSH Ovechkin, Green, Brouwer, Backstrom, Johansson · COL Talbot, Hejda, Cliche, Johnson

  53. P2 18:12Shot by Stuart, saved by Holtby
  54. P2 18:16Shot by Barrie, saved by Holtby
  55. P2 19:41Shot by Orpik, saved by Varlamov
  56. P2 0:00Period end
  57. P3 0:00Period start
  58. P3 0:11Shot by Hejda, saved by Holtby
  59. P3 2:29Shot by Wilson, saved by Varlamov
  60. P3 3:50Fehr: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: WSH Ward, Orpik, Fehr, Ovechkin, Carlson · COL Iginla, Tanguay, Johnson, O'Reilly, Duchene, Barrie

  61. P3 4:03Shot by Landeskog, saved by Holtby4v5
  62. P3 4:30Shot by Iginla, saved by Holtby4v5
  63. P3 4:32Shot by Brière, saved by Holtby4v5
  64. P3 4:53Shot by Tanguay, saved by Holtby4v5
  65. P3 5:12Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Holtby4v5
  66. P3 5:30Shot by Barrie, saved by Holtby4v5
  67. P3 6:56Shot by Green, saved by Varlamov
  68. P3 7:51Shot by Duchene, saved by Holtby
  69. P3 8:31Shot by Laich, saved by Varlamov
  70. P3 9:28Shot by Barrie, saved by Holtby
  71. P3 11:43Shot by Stuart, saved by Holtby
  72. P3 12:20Shot by Johnson, saved by Holtby
  73. P3 12:21Shot by Rendulic, saved by Holtby
  74. P3 13:02Shot by Mitchell, saved by Holtby
  75. P3 14:33Shot by Kuznetsov, saved by Varlamov
  76. P3 14:44Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Holtby
  77. P3 15:32Shot by Carlson, saved by Varlamov
  78. P3 16:40Shot by Ovechkin, saved by Varlamov
  79. P3 18:52Shot by O'Reilly, saved by Holtby5v6
  80. P3 18:53Shot by Tanguay, saved by Holtby5v6
  81. P3 19:11Shot by Duchene, saved by Holtby5v6
  82. P3 19:56Shot by Iginla, saved by Holtby5v6
  83. P3 0:00Period end
  84. P3 0:00Final