Tue, Jan 13, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 214 | 05 | 330 |
| BUF | 08 | 110 | 08 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:42DETDarren HelmSHAssists: Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 7:34DETGustav NyquistPPGWGAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Pavel Datsyuk · Backhand, 0.34 xG2–0
- P2 13:24BUFMike WeberAssists: Brian Flynn, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 15:09DETTomas TatarAssists: Kyle Quincey, Danny DeKeyser · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:36DETBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:47DETDrew Miller: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:17BUFRasmus Ristolainen: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 8:03BUFMatt Ellis: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:15BUFAndre Benoit: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:03BUFDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:03DETDanny DeKeyser: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Tatar – Sheahan11:42
xG 0.68–0.27 (71%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Weiss – Helm – Pulkkinen8:04
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Helm – Glendening2:07
xG 0.03–0.02 (66%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader15:20
xG 0.18–0.38 (32%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Ouellet12:02
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser15:23
xG 0.45–0.46 (50%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson15:09
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Ellis – Kaleta – Dalpe5:18
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons14:07
xG 0.42–0.41 (50%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Stafford – Mitchell – Flynn11:38
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Deslauriers – Varone8:14
xG 0.09–0.29 (24%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Weber12:46
xG 0.44–0.31 (58%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Weber – Myers2:13
xG 0.12–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Benoit – Ristolainen12:05
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).