Tue, Jan 13, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 3, New York Rangers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 013 | 319 | 012 | 344 |
| NYR | 09 | 012 | 06 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:49NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Calvin de Haan, Travis Hamonic · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 16:31NYINikolay KuleminUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 19:19NYIFrans NielsenSHAssists: Johnny Boychuk · Snap, 0.09 xG3–0
Penalties (5)
- P2 13:06NYRMarc Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 18:48NYITravis Hamonic: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NYRJesper Fast: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NYRDan Boyle: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Kulemin – Nelson10:53
xG 0.90–0.08 (92%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Lee – Strome11:44
xG 0.70–0.32 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares14:43
xG 1.22–1.30 (48%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas11:10
xG 0.41–0.51 (45%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy17:04
xG 1.49–0.59 (72%)attempts 25–22goals 0–0
- Hamonic – de Haan15:07
xG 0.96–0.68 (59%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Strait – Hickey15:19
xG 0.88–1.02 (46%)attempts 18–18goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Stempniak – Miller7:11
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Hayes – Fast7:03
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Kreider – Miller4:26
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Moore – Stempniak – Hagelin4:31
xG 0.06–0.14 (28%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – McDonagh2:50
xG 0.60–0.14 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Boyle – Staal13:32
xG 0.64–0.47 (58%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Klein – Staal2:47
xG 0.01–0.01 (33%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).