Tue, Jan 13, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Ottawa Senators 4, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 311 | 014 | 116 | 441 |
| DAL | 19 | 415 | 05 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:57OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:30OTTClarke MacArthurPPAssists: David Legwand, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 16:08DALAles HemskyAssists: Alex Goligoski, Anders Lindback · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 17:55OTTJared CowenAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 2:38DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Travis Moen, Shawn Horcoff · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 8:42DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Colton Sceviour, Travis Moen · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 17:19DALErik ColePPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–4
- P2 19:50DALJohn KlingbergGWGAssists: Ales Hemsky, Erik Cole · Snap, 0.15 xG3–5
- P3 6:00OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Alex Chiasson, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:43DALTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:08OTTDavid Legwand: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:38DALAles Hemsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:38OTTErik Karlsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:34DALJordie Benn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:28OTTBobby Ryan: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Michalek – Stone6:46
xG 0.67–0.23 (74%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- MacArthur – Turris – Chiasson8:04
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Michalek – Chiasson – Pageau2:25
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Condra – Pageau – Lazar5:41
xG 0.14–0.27 (33%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson17:41
xG 0.70–0.37 (65%)attempts 27–13goals 0–0
- Cowen – Ceci12:51
xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 15–4goals 2–2
- Phillips – Gryba11:46
xG 0.56–1.12 (33%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Ritchie12:44
xG 0.80–0.10 (89%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Roussel2:37
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Cole – Spezza – Hemsky8:49
xG 0.33–0.43 (43%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Horcoff – Moen – Sceviour8:05
xG 0.36–0.65 (36%)attempts 10–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski12:16
xG 0.79–0.21 (79%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Daley – Schlemko6:06
xG 0.25–0.08 (75%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Benn – Klingberg9:46
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).