Fri, Jan 16, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Washington Capitals 3, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 214 | 112 | 334 |
| NSH | 110 | 18 | 212 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:16NSHSeth JonesAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 1:50NSHJames NealAssists: Mike Fisher, Victor Bartley · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 3:46WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Karl Alzner, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 6:18WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Troy Brouwer · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 2:38WSHMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.47 xG3–2
- P3 15:31NSHMattias EkholmPPAssists: Seth Jones, Craig Smith · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 18:20NSHJames NealGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:07WSHJack Hillen: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:39NSHMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:55NSHAnton Volchenkov: Interference2 min
- P2 15:18WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:10NSHShea Weber: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:42WSHBrooks Orpik: Elbowing2 min
- P3 14:46WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson3:08
xG 0.32–0.04 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Burakovsky9:48
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Ward – Laich – Beagle5:58
xG 0.27–0.10 (74%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson3:21
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner17:05
xG 0.51–0.40 (56%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Orpik – Carlson15:02
xG 0.85–0.76 (53%)attempts 18–19goals 0–2
- Green – Hillen11:36
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Jokinen – Jarnkrok9:04
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg11:23
xG 0.46–0.57 (45%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson12:37
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Beck – Bourque7:41
xG 0.04–0.30 (13%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBartley – Jones6:55
xG 0.50–0.23 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Jones7:37
xG 0.56–0.32 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Volchenkov – Ekholm9:32
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).