Sat, Jan 17, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 212 | 213 | 432 |
| BUF | 18 | 18 | 111 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:51BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Chris Stewart, Brian Flynn · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 3:51PHIR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Matt Read, Michael Del Zotto · Slap, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 7:49PHIMark StreitPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 19:05BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Matt Moulson, Rasmus Ristolainen · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–2
- P3 5:54PHIChris VandeVeldeAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 8:39PHIMichael RafflGWGAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–2
- P3 18:51BUFZemgus GirgensonsPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Chris Stewart · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:18PHIMichael Raffl: Interference2 min
- P2 2:04BUFZemgus Girgensons: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:30BUFChris Stewart: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:30BUFChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:30PHISean Couturier: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:03BUFPhil Varone: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:33PHIZac Rinaldo: Interference2 min
- P3 17:34PHIVincent Lecavalier: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Raffl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Rinaldo – Raffl10:19
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare7:24
xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Umberger – Read – Couturier11:40
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Schenn10:55
xG 0.28–0.49 (36%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – MacDonald13:24
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Schenn – Del Zotto16:15
xG 0.59–0.64 (48%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Streit – Schultz13:45
xG 0.40–0.66 (38%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Mitchell – Ennis14:27
xG 0.82–0.42 (66%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Stafford – Hodgson – Varone5:17
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Ellis – Kaleta – Deslauriers9:11
xG 0.08–0.31 (21%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Stewart – Flynn – Girgensons13:46
xG 0.26–0.84 (23%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Myers18:38
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Benoit – Strachan9:41
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Zadorov14:11
xG 0.48–0.93 (34%)attempts 9–21goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).