Sat, Jan 17, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Colorado Avalanche 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 05 | 120 | 112 | 05 | 1 | 242 |
| TBL | 115 | 09 | 15 | 02 | 2 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58TBLRyan CallahanPPAssists: Alex Killorn, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 0:51COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P3 4:08TBLAnton StralmanAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 19:53COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TBL Nikita Kucherov scored
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 3. TBL Ondrej Palat stopped
- 4. COL Matt Duchene scored
- 5. TBL Ryan Callahan scored
- 6. COL Alex Tanguay stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:31COLJan Hejda: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:30TBLRyan Callahan: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:30COLJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:26TBLBrenden Morrow: Interference2 min
- P3 14:45TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 4:36TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon11:42
xG 1.01–0.31 (77%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Duchene11:27
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Brière – Talbot – Cliche10:17
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Everberg11:53
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson16:39
xG 1.21–0.31 (80%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Johnson – Barrie2:19
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Guenin – Barrie14:10
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Boyle – Drouin9:20
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov11:37
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Connolly – Paquette10:56
xG 0.14–0.09 (60%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Stamkos12:56
xG 0.24–0.49 (33%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Sustr2:01
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Garrison – Nesterov12:37
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Barberio – Sustr14:12
xG 0.15–0.51 (23%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).