Sat, Jan 17, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 4, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 211 | 16 | 04 | 12 | 423 |
| SJS | 04 | 310 | 08 | 00 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40CGYDennis WidemanAssists: Joe Colborne, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 5:59CGYJoe ColborneSHAssists: Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 0:12SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Patrick Marleau, Justin Braun · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 2:40SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–2
- P2 9:00SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Justin Braun · Deflected, 0.20 xG2–3
- P2 11:32CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Mikael Backlund, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 0:24CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Paul Byron · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:09CGYJiri Hudler: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:59SJSTyler Kennedy: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:10CGYDavid Jones: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 9:33SJSMatt Tennyson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Sheppard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestRaymond – Colborne – Granlund11:34
xG 0.50–0.29 (64%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Stajan – Byron – Bollig7:37
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hudler – Backlund – Gaudreau14:18
xG 0.29–0.61 (32%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Jones – Bouma – Monahan14:28
xG 0.20–0.53 (28%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Giordano – Brodie22:34
xG 0.58–0.62 (48%)attempts 21–18goals 1–0
- Engelland – Smid10:16
xG 0.06–0.20 (22%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell18:08
xG 0.37–0.84 (31%)attempts 15–16goals 1–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSheppard – Wingels – Goodrow3:49
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Couture – Karlsson2:45
xG 0.18–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson9:37
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels9:52
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Dillon15:27
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 17–14goals 2–1
- Hannan – Tennyson12:24
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic21:57
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).