Sun, Jan 18, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Arizona Coyotes 3, Winnipeg Jets 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 111 | 05 | 214 | 01 | 0 | 331 |
| WPG | 18 | 112 | 15 | 05 | 1 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:08WPGBryan LittleAssists: Andrew Ladd · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 7:36ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Shane Doan, Martin Hanzal · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 1:39WPGMichael FrolikUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P3 9:36WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 13:21ARILauri KorpikoskiPPAssists: Michael Stone, Keith Yandle · Deflected, 0.23 xG2–3
- P3 16:10ARITobias RiederAssists: Antoine Vermette, Shane Doan · Deflected, 0.21 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 2. ARI Sam Gagner stopped
- 3. WPG Evander Kane stopped
- 4. ARI Antoine Vermette stopped
- 5. WPG Bryan Little scored
- 6. ARI Shane Doan stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:21WPGDustin Byfuglien: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:34WPGZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:34ARIKyle Chipchura: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:01ARIMichael Stone: Holding2 min
- P1 18:44WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:55ARIBrandon McMillan: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:05WPGEvander Kane: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:05ARIChris Summers: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:44WPGMark Stuart: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:25WPGDustin Byfuglien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- OT 3:55ARIKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Chipchura – Korpikoski5:04
xG 0.43–0.11 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Rieder2:30
xG 0.25–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Rieder7:47
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Doan – Korpikoski – Hanzal2:16
xG 0.04–0.28 (12%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Ekman-Larsson15:21
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Yandle – Murphy3:21
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Murphy11:58
xG 0.32–0.51 (39%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Kane – Scheifele12:00
xG 1.07–0.35 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little12:35
xG 0.86–0.44 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Slater – Galiardi – Peluso5:41
xG 0.32–0.09 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Halischuk – Lowry7:31
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Bogosian14:46
xG 1.03–0.36 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Harrison – Stuart10:18
xG 0.65–0.24 (73%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot17:29
xG 0.93–0.59 (61%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).